As the potential face-off between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden for the 2024 Presidential Elections continues to remain a topic of debate, a new Gallup poll gives interesting insight into the chances of a third-party candidate winning the election.
The poll drew attention to both President Biden and former President Trump’s relative lack of support among voters who are looking for an independent candidate. The poll, conducted between May 1-15 of 2021, covered a broad age range of people aged 18 and older. It shows that while 53% of people would vote for Biden and 39% would vote for Trump, 8% of respondents said that they would be voting for an independent candidate instead.
The poll revealed the likelihood of both Biden and Trump losing support among voters with the emergence of an independent candidate in the 2024 elections. Perhaps the largest indication of the potential for a third-party candidate to win in 2024 was that voters aged 18-34, the most important voting bloc in the U.S., had the highest level of support for an independent candidate, with 10% of them expressing support.
However, even if a third-party candidate did gain support among the voting population, it is unlikely that the candidate would win the presidency. Most of the support for a third-party candidate is likely coming from voters who are not strongly committed to either Biden or Trump, leaving either one of them in a very strong position to win the election.
It will be interesting to see if any third-party candidate is able to gain significant support by the 2024 presidential elections. Although the support for an independent candidate is currently relatively low, it is clear that both Biden and Trump have reason to become concerned if an independent candidate gains traction in the coming years.